A series of disturbances aloft will emerge off the Central Rockies toward the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley. Each of these impulses should provide enough lift in the atmosphere to produce an axis of moderate to heavy rainfall. Plenty of daytime heating will allow thunderstorms to erupt with a peak intensity in the late afternoon/early evening.
An upper trough across the Northern Plains will lead to a more organized axis of frontal showers as the system sweeps through the north-central tier of the country by late Friday and into Saturday. While pockets of severe weather will be possible with any thunderstorm which develops in the corridor stretching from the Central Plains toward the Upper Midwest, the coverage should be rather widespread. A dry line located in the lee of the Rockies from the Colorado/New Mexico/Oklahoma Panhandle border to southwestern North Dakota will be the site of possible severe thunderstorms throughout much of Friday.
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for the central and northern High Plains. Over 260 reports of severe weather were received yesterday, including two tornadoes in Colorado and one tornado in Kansas. High wind and hail reports were scattered across the Southeast and Gulf Coast, and through the Plains states from Western Wisconsin to Western Texas. One injury was reported when thunderstorm wind gusts tore the roof off a temporary structure at Bama Jam near New Brockton, Alabama.
At 200 AM PDT (500 AM EDT) the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located about 190 miles south-southeast of Puerto Angel Mexico or about 400 miles southeast of Acapulco Mexico. Movement was toward the northwest near 10 MPH. This general motion is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest expected on Saturday. On the forecast track the center of Carlotta should move near or over the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds were near 70 MPH with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours and Carlotta is forecast to become a hurricane by this afternoon.
