Troughing stretches from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Midwest. Accompanying this upper trough will be a strong Pacific jet stream which is expected to steer a series of of disturbances across the northern tier states. Moderate to heavy precipitation will accompany the wavy frontal system sprawled across the region with embedded severe thunderstorms also a possibility through Tuesday morning over the Upper Midwest. Further to the south along a dry line/surface trough, a pronounced downsloping flow will allow the mercury to rise quickly across the much of the southern/central High Plains on Monday. Hot and dry conditions across the central Great Basin/Central Rockies will significantly lower the relative humidity readings over the region. Locally gusty winds will raise concerns for wildfire danger.
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Yesterday, there were 70 reports of severe weather including one tornado in Minnesota and one in South Dakota. The majority of high wind and hail reports were also from Minnesota and South Dakota.
At 200 AM PDT (500 AM EDT) the center of Hurricane Carlotta was located about 25 miles north-northeast of Punto Maldonado Mexico or about 100 miles east-southeast of Acapulco Mexico. Movement was toward the west-northwest at 13 MPH. This motion is expected to continue this morning followed by a gradual decrease in forward speed this afternoon into sunday. On the forecast track the center of carlotta is expected to remain just inland of the coast of southern Mexico for the next few days. Since Carlotta is interacting with the high terrain of Mexico, the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 MPH with higher gusts. Carlotta is a Category One Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Critical Fire Weather Conditions are forecast for the Great Basin, central Rockies, parts of the central High Plains, and portions of the desert south-west …specifically: Nevada, Utah, north-central Colorado, south-central Wyoming, northern Arizona, and parts of the California Mohave Desert.